The Happiness of Being…Wrong (on Zimbabwean Political Analysis)

So anyone who knows me and has known me for some time knows that for years I have analysed the situation in my home country (Zimbabwe), I have been skeptical of every situation and whenever I have analysed a situation it has come true. Over time I have self-styled myself as an independent researcher (for think tank purposes) and a political analyst, due to the fact that I have, most of the time analysed the situation in Zim, correctly. A friend of mine in Zimbabwe, a political analyst by the name of Allan Wenyika and I were talking once and we both came to the conclusion that analysing situations rightly was a bit depressing. Its not a nice feeling when you analyse something of that magnitude and the analysis becomes right. Its always a kick in the gut to be honest, being an analyst can come with cost.

On the 15th of November the Army took unprecedented action and placed Robert Mugabe under arrest and took over the Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation. My analysis was that this was going to turn into a civil war and that Robert and Grace Mugabe’s allies would come to their assistance and there would be an ensuing upheaval. I was however, and rather pleasantly surprised and extremely excited when the ZNA and the people of Zimbabwe, regardless of race, creed, religion took to the streets in what was dubbed a solidarity march. For once in Zimbabwean history, the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) and the people stood shoulder to shoulder to demand Robert Mugabe’s resignation, which, at the time he said he would after being sacked by his party, ZANU PF, later that evening he unfortunately, and at the surprise of not only the people but also the Army, Mugabe refused to resign. His party then gave him an ultimatum, resign or be impeached. His deadline to walk out was yesterday. And so today the process to impeach him has begun where the Army has vowed to unseat him by force, should he not go. Of course, the Army thus far have been patient and generally professional and peaceful and there has only been one casualty throughout this whole process where a security guard, loyal to one of Mugabe’s cronies open fired on the Army who returned fire, killing the security guard in the exchange, whether this is true or not I am not sure but was part of the military brief I received from a trusted source.

What is my opinion on how it will go?

One thing I have come to realise is that we, as a country cannot afford to be fussy, we cannot get rid of Mugabe and then say its time for ZANU PF to go, which is what I have been seeing people saying. Let me just get things straight here before I start being accused of things. I have never been a ZANU PF supporter, I have never tolerated Mugabe. However, one thing I am thinking is that perhaps, for now we need to hold onto ZANU – it just requires new management, it requires management with maturity, the country needs a leader who can lead us back to prosperity, we need a leader who has charisma, we need a leader who has the people of Zimbabwe at heart. We need a leader who is energetic and wants a way forward. We want a leader who accepts that Zimbabwe’s unity stretches beyond tribes – Zimbabwe’s unity stretches across the divide to all those born and bred in Zimbabwe, no matter your creed, race, religion. I have, in another post posted Emmerson Mnangagwa’s latest press statement.

It needs to be mindful that we cannot start thinking about other things, we cannot afford to be distracted and we need to accept that this IS the way forward. The way forward is NOT the Movement for Democratic Change (not under its current administration anyway) or Morgan Tsvangirai. This is change that the country needs now.

I would like to wish every Zimbabwean the very best of luck, lets remain hopeful.